Anson on Thursday: What Brexit may mean for Bordeaux 2015 en primeur
Jane Anson looks ahead to the Bordeaux 2015 en primeur campaign and talks to trade experts about what impact the UK referendum on EU membership could have on pricing and consumer demand – in a market that has no shortage of Bordeaux wine.
Yes, it’s that time again… just under three weeks until the Bordeaux 2015 en primeur vintage is submitted to the annual en primeur microscope.
It’s actually pretty notable how little fanfare there has been in the lead up to the tastings so far, despite the vintage ticking all the right boxes in terms of weather conditions and quality potential. There’s no doubt that there is a quiet confidence in the wines (last week The Independent ran an article suggesting that 2015 will be a great year, ‘maybe one of the greatest ever’). But I guess even the most hardened chateau owner can read the ambivalence of international markets towards a system of selling that has seen few winners over the past five years.
What’s happening in the market?
The latest market figures from Bordeaux négociants, care of Eleanor Wine in February 2016, show that the 2013 vintage (the one that is hitting the market now, just as the 2015 en primeurs are to be tasted) is being offered at either at or below release price in 90% of cases. A full 63% has not budged in price either way, with 27% trading at below opening price and just 10% showing a rise (the best rise, with an impressive 74%, is Petit Mouton, and there is also a cheering 19% rise for the increasingly strong Chateau Carmes Haut-Brion). The percentage drops for the worst performers are not as miserable as you might think by the way – the worst drop is 7% for Pagodes Cos d’Estournel, but its release price was only 2% under that of 2012, clearly not enough for the vintage.
Even the better quality 2012 vintage has 55% of estates being offered either at or below release price, and just 45% seeing an increase since En Primeur (although this compares favourably to two years ago, in 2014, when only 17.6% had increased in price).
But the Bordelais are both super resilient and super thick skinned when it comes to valuing their wine, and it has been pretty much universally accepted that their exit prices for the 2015s are going to be higher than the last few years.
